STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF AIR FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

ABSTRACT

The authors considered: the dynamics of air cargo transportation in the Russian Federation for 2022 and 2023, real statistical data for the spring of 2024 presented in the table, known data for the end of 2024, possible forecast for 2025.

Keywords: air transportation, logistics, statistics, cargo turnover, forecast.

Air transport, both import and export, accounts for most of the volume of cargo that is handled in the Russian Federation. Due to the volatility of the world market, there is also variability within the Russian Federation, so it was necessary to analyze the results during each year and compare them with the results of the previous year.

In 2022, 91,034 tonnes of cargo were transported by air, accounting for 15% of the total air transport in Russia. In 2023, due to the restrictions that were imposed in 2022, cargo traffic of Russian airlines decreased by 23% compared to the previous year, they amounted to 467,373 tons, of which 337,563 tons on domestic routes and 129,809 tons on international routes, according to the Directive in the Federal Air Transport Agency dated February 22, 2024.

The problems of the largest Russian cargo airline AirBridge Cargo (ABC), part of the Volga-Dnepr Group of Companies, significantly affected the performance due to the fact that they stopped cargo flights in 2023 due to restrictions on international flights, which led to a significant decrease in total traffic.

Other cargo airlines, such as Volga-Dnepr and Aviastar-TU, which are also large in the domestic market, suffered from an overall decline in traffic, reporting drops of 27% and 30% in 2023, respectively. This data clearly shows and illustrates the challenges faced by Russian carriers in the face of sanctions and changes in the global air cargo market.

The decline began in March 2022. Global demand, measured in freight tonne-kilometers (FTK), fell 7.7% year-on-year in March 2022 (-8.1% for international flights; -8.1% for international flights; -8.1% for international flights). This is a slight improvement compared to the previous February result (-9.4%). However, this is half the annual decline observed in January and December (-16.8% and -15.6%, respectively). At the same time, the March figure was again negative compared to the level before the introduction of COSVID (-8.1%).

The Ukrainian crisis has caused serious damage to the Russian aviation sector in general and cargo transportation in particular: until 2022, international cargo transportation accounted for about 70-75% of cargo transportation by domestic airlines. Since the outbreak of the conflict, trade relations with many countries have been reduced or severed, and the risk of plane crashes abroad has made a significant part of foreign markets inaccessible to Russian airlines. Part of the domestic fleet used foreign-made passenger aircraft, which became much more difficult to operate and maintain under sanctions. Direct deliveries of new aircraft and spare parts are impossible, and establishing a supply system through parallel imports takes a lot of time and inevitably increases costs. As a result, freight traffic in 2022 will amount to only 0.6 million tons per year, which is 49.1% less than in 2018.

In January-February 2023, the total volume of cargo transportation by Russian transport increased by 6.8% and amounted to 1.18 billion tons. In Russia, there is a positive trend in the development of this sector. This indicates the importance of cargo transportation for the Russian economy and emphasizes the role of Russia in the global transport system. The statistics are also affected by the growth of e-commerce and the increase in the volume of international trade (Table 1).

Table 1

Dynamics of cargo transportation by air in the Russian Federation, thousand tons

During the reporting period, 795 tons of cargo were transported by air from Russia to the countries of the European Union (EU) (in the amount of 882 million euros).

During the reporting period, 795 tonnes of cargo (worth €882 million) were transported by air from Russia to the European Union (EU), compared to just over 2,200 tonnes (-64.4%) and almost €3 billion (-66.7%) in January-June last year. During the reporting period, Russia transported the smallest volume of cargo to the EU by air in June (47 tons (-70.8%)), and the largest in April (271 tons (-38.5%)). In the first half of 2023, most of the cargo from Russia to the EU was destined for Belgium, Hungary and Germany.

The volume of traffic from Moscow to Kaliningrad and the Far Eastern cities (Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Vladivostok, Khabarovsk and Blagoveshchensk) increased. India, China and Turkey are becoming important destinations for international air travel. For example, the demand for air travel on routes to Turkey has doubled compared to 2022.

The share of interregional transportation from the Urals to the Far East and back is increasing, which is primarily due to the growth in the volume of cargo transportation from China.

Also, due to the shortage of truck drivers, the demand for long-distance air transportation in the southern direction has increased: the Krasnodar and Stavropol territories, the republics of the North Caucasus.

Figure 1. Statistics of import and export transportation in Russia 2022-2025.

At the end of 2024, the cargo turnover of air transport in Russia increased by 11.4% and reached 1.9 billion ton-kilometers. Such data is provided by the analytical company BusinesStat. This became known in mid-February 2025.

According to BusinesStat, the main driver of the growth in cargo turnover was international air cargo transportation. The expansion of cooperation with the countries of the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region contributed to an increase in cargo traffic in this direction.

Thus, for the period of 2025, a significant growth of the domestic air transportation market in Russia is expected with an emphasis on improving the quality of service and expanding the route network, which stimulates the growth of passenger traffic and increases the competitiveness of domestic airlines.

References:

1. Bulgakov D.A. International air transportation in the air transport system of the Russian Federation: current state and development trends // Russian Economic Bulletin. - 2024. - №7(2). - P. 280-293.
2. Kuzmina L.V., Merinskaya E.E. A study of the dynamics of air cargo transportation in Russia in 2019-2023. - 2023. - №9. - P. 184-187.
3. Yadrov D.V. Order of the Federal Air Transport Agency of 22.02.2024 No 190-P "On approval of information materials on the preparation for seasonal (in autumn-winter and spring-summer periods) operation of aircraft and objects of the infrastructure of air transport of civil aviation / Yadrov D.V. [Elektronnyi resurs] // Federal'nyi agentstvo vozdushnogo transporta : [site]. URL: https://favt.gov.ru/dokumenty-prikazy-rosaviacii?id=10964 (accessed: 01.03.2025).
4. Chen Chu, Hengcai Zhang, Jiayin Zhang, Lin Cong, Feng Lu Assessing impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global air transportation: From the view of mass flight trajectories // Journal of Air Transport Management. - 2023. - №115. - P. 102522.
5. Osama Husian Ali Adali, Peter Kaľavský, Muftah S.M. Abdala, Juraj Horkay Economical Impact of Regional Air Transportation // Acta Avionica Journal. - 2024. - №26(2). - P. 29-38.
6. Nazarenko Y.L. System of legal regulation of international air transportation // Uzhhorod National University Herald Series Law. - 2024. - №3(83). - P. 392-397.
7. Petrova T. A., Kardanov V. A. Analysis of modern air transportation in Russia // Vestnik Universiteta. - 2024. - №9. - P. 65-75.